A Bettor Look

Written by Jesse Rinaldo

Odds and betting done in New York

With a new NBA season come many things, chances to see your favorite rookies shine on the court, chances to see some “rookies” (cough Chet Holmgren cough) perform, and for some fans, like us Knicks fans, chances to see how offseason changes can affect your team’s performance on the court.

However, to me, the prospect of seeing new teams and new players, while exciting, is something we will see throughout the season; and for the most part, most rookies will take longer than 5 NBA games to develop. My personal favorite part about a new NBA season is the lines in which Sports books undercut (and sometimes over-inflate) player props in a near-gruesome way.

The start of the NBA season is the perfect time to shop lines, the books don’t know how players are going to perform, especially if they are in a new system. Here are some plays that I’ve played this season that have been some absolute UNDERCUTS, write-ups explaining how I found these picks, and tips for how YOU can find the most profitable props your book has to offer.

PLAYS THIS SEASON:

• (10/25) Jrue Holiday Under 7.5 Assists (-115 Fliff)

This line was absolutely ABYSMAL by the books. Is Jrue Holiday a solid point guard? For sure. Is He one of the league’s premier defenders? Absolutely. Is he an amazing presence to have on and off the court for any team? Without a doubt. But none of those points answer the question that this prop asks: Is Jrue Holiday a facilitator, especially in an offense surrounded by some of the league’s premier offensive playmakers? The answer is simply no, while Holiday’s playmaking capability is absolutely exceptional, it is going to be a rare sighting that we see him cover a line like this throughout the season. Keep your eyes peeled on this prop throughout the season, as any point guard in a system as efficient as Boston’s offense, is bound to put up decent assist numbers, but a player like Jrue is going to facilitate good basketball in ways other than his passing ability.

• (10/25) Anthony Edwards Over 8.5 Reb+Ast (-135 Fliff)

In what I can describe only as a severe undercut by the books, not only did Anthony Edwards cover this line with ease, but he absolutely demolished this line. The write-up for this one is going to be brief, but Ant Edwards is going to put up numbers this season, without a doubt, not just points. I personally have him top 5 in terms of MVP potential in the league, and if the books are going to continue to undercut his props, I am going to continue to cut their liquidity pools. Ant put up 14 boards in this game, and while that may be more than he averages come season end, I could see a cool 25/8/5 out of Ant come season end. Definitely, a player who’s lines SHOULD be shopped throughout the season.

I have played some other winners this season, including Tyrese Maxey Over 8.5 AST + REB (10/26, +100, DraftKings), and a Jayson Tatum Double Double opening night against the Knicks at -105 on DraftKings.

TONIGHT’s BIG PLAYS: 10/27

• Jimmy Butler Over 34.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-115 DraftKings)

This one is straight-up a gut play at its heart. Throwing it back to last year’s playoffs where Jimmy Butler seemingly did it all in Miami’s incredible run to the finals, and with fewer tools on his roster this year, he’s going to have to do it all x2, hold some scoring weight from Herro and some Rebounding weight from Adebayo. I think Jimmy is still keen on covering this line, and his aggressive play is going to help him get there. .5U.

• RJ Barrett Over 25 Pts+Reb+Ast (Alt) (-160 DraftKings)

This was a shopping spree play. Seeing this line at these odds almost made me jump for joy, Barrett is poised for a breakout year, and after his performances against the Celtics on opening night, and his play in the playoffs last year, I find it hard for him to not cover this line. The Knick from The North is hungry, and so are the rest of the squad. .5U

• Jalen Duren Over 22.5 Pts+Reb (-120 DraftKings)

This guy is a beast. I love the Pistons squad this year and I love what they are doing in this rebuild phase. And besides Ausar Thompson, Duren is by far my favorite player in this squad. He is going to be THE paint presence for the Pistons and against a strong rebounding force like Mark Williams, it is going to get gritty under the basket, which will lead to points and rebounds in favor of Duren. 1U.