Possible Chaos for the CFP Committee

As the college football regular season starts to end, the playoff talks begin. Two weeks left, eight teams in the hunt and only four spots are up for grabs. 

Current Rankings

CFP

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Florida State
5. Washington
6. Oregon  
7. Texas
8. Alabama

AP Poll

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Washington
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama

Coming into last week Ohio State was ranked number 1 in the CFP rankings, but they have now been jumped by Georgia after the Bulldogs’ win over Tennessee. Washington had the toughest matchup against Oregon State as they traveled into Beaver territory and came out with a 22-20 victory. Despite the win against North Alabama, Florida State suffered a brutal blow with the injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis who is out for the season with a lower leg injury. 

This has been the best season during the four-playoff team era. I truly think any team in the top eight can win it all. Normally, there are 1-3 powerhouse teams and then the remaining ones are good and fun to watch but can’t compete with the big dogs, but not this year. Imagine if the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams this season.

There are a lot of scenarios that can give the committee a hard time deciphering who deserves to make the playoffs and who doesn’t. 

Remaining Schedule

Week 13

#11 Oregon State @ #6 Oregon

Texas Tech @ #7 Texas

#2 Ohio State @ #3 Michigan 

#8 Alabama @ Auburn 

#4 Florida State @ Florida 

#1 Georgia @ Georgia Tech 

Washington State @ #5 Washington

The Civil War (not called that anymore)

The Ducks have owned the rivalry for the last 15 years going 12-3, but the Beavers have taken the most previous matchup by a score of 38-34 that saw an absolute choke job by the Ducks. The Beavers are solid all around, however, I think Bo Nix and this juggernaut offense will be too much for Oregon State. Give me the Ducks and Nix cementing his Heisman campaign with 300+ yards and four total touchdowns.

The Game 

One of the best rivalries in all sports, The Ohio State Buckeyes will travel to Ann Arbor looking for revenge against the Wolverines after getting blown out in back-to-back meetings. The winner will go to the conference championship and most likely be in the CFP. Michigan’s game plan- stop Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State’s game plan- stop Blake Corum. I am taking the Wolverines in a low-scoring game. 

Nothing better than hearing Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt call an Ohio State and Michigan game. Over/Under 7.5 “Maserati Marv” from Gus Johnson

Flo-Rida 

Florida State has already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game against Louisville, but they gotta go through the Gators first to keep their playoff hopes alive. If Jordan Travis was playing I would expect an easy FSU win, but now with backup QB Tate Rodemaker, anything can happen. Rodemaker looked good filling in for Travis going 13/23 with two touchdowns, but then again that was against North Alabama. Expect the Gators to blitz like crazy to see what this dudes got. Give me the Gators with the upset in The Swamp. 

Georgia, Alabama, Washington, and Texas all should handle their matchups this week…I would think. 

Possible Outcomes

Let’s say that Georgia, Alabama, Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Florida State all win this week and then we will play around with Ohio State and Michigan. 

Now the decision can be very easy for the committee if Georgia and Michigan/Ohio State win out because those are 2/4 spots and then you take the winner of Oregon and Washington and you take FSU if they win and if FSU loses then you take Texas. However, there may be some chaos if certain teams win. 

Scenario Number 1

Team	Record	Conference Champion?
Georgia	11-1	Loss to Alabama
Ohio State	12-0	Win Big 10
Michigan	11-1	Loss to Ohio State
Florida State	12-0	Win ACC
Washington	12-0	Win Pac-12
Oregon	10-2	Loss to Washington
Texas	11-1	Win Big 12
Alabama	11-1	Win SEC

Ohio State, Washington, and Florida State automatically make it, right?- undefeated and won their conference. Will the committee be hesitant on FSU since they will have their backup playing?  We have seen backups step up in the past like Ohio State’s third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones, leading the Buckeyes to a title in 2014-15. 

Alabama beats Georgia, the best team in the country and back-to-back champs so they should get in, however, Texas beat the Tide earlier in the season in Tuscaloosa. So yes, an SEC title is better than a Big 12 title, but you cannot just dismiss Texas winning the head-to-head matchup. 

My Opinion 

1. Ohio State 
2. Washington 
3. Florida State 
4. Texas 

I would not be surprised if the committee just says we don’t care that Texas beat Alabama we think Alabama’s conference championship is more impressive so they are getting in. Some people may not like that, but you have to keep in mind that Alabama lost to Texas in Week 2, it’s not like it happened in the last couple of weeks.

Scenario Number 2

Team	Record	Conference Champion?
Georgia	11-1	Loss to Alabama
Ohio State	12-1	Loss to Michigan
Michigan	12-0	Win Big 10
Florida State	12-0	Win ACC
Washington	11-1	Loss to Oregon
Oregon	11-1	Win Pac-12
Texas	11-1	Win Big 12
Alabama	11-1	Win SEC

Michigan is automatically in and to make things interesting FSU is on the fence for the time being. Two spots left for four teams. Out of Oregon, Alabama, and Texas, Alabama’s win is the most impressive so they get in. Then I think Oregon is better than Texas so Oregon gets in over Texas, but wait! Texas beat Alabama this season. Do you see the issue? Are Alabama and Texas a package deal then? Do you take FSU out and have Oregon, Texas, and Alabama get in then? Do you just say f*ck it despite Georgia’s loss they stay in and one of the conference winners can take a hike? 

My Opinion 

1. Michigan 
2. Florida State 
3. Texas 
4. Alabama 

Alabama’s win is the most impressive and if you have them in I think you gotta have Texas in too. I do think Oregon is better than Texas, but it is a toss-up. 

Scenario Number 3

Team	Record	Conference Champion?
Georgia	11-1	Loss to Alabama
Ohio State	12-0	Win Big 10
Michigan	11-1	Loss to Ohio State
Florida State	11-1	Loss to Louisville
Washington	11-1	Loss to Oregon
Oregon	11-1	Win Pac-12
Texas	11-1	Win Big 12
Alabama	11-1	Win SEC

This is the most interesting scenario in my opinion. Ohio State is automatically in and Michigan, Washington, and Florida State are out. So that leaves Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, and Texas left. I wanna say you leave Georgia in, but then here comes that package deal with Alabama and Texas. 

My Opinion 

1. Ohio State 
2. Texas 
3. Alabama 
4. Georgia 

I guess I value that head-to-head matchup between Texas and Alabama. Maybe Louisville will sneak into the mix if they win out. They would need a Texas and Alabama which is very possible. 

My predictions from October 26 are looking very possible. Take a look at them at the link below. 

College Football Playoff Prediction