Biggest Bust and Surprises in Fantasy Football This Season

Every football season we see players who underperform and overperform in fantasy football. Below is a list of some of the biggest busts and some of the biggest surprises as we reach the second half of the season. 

Full PPR leagues 

Busts

Trevor Lawrence

I will completely admit I thought Lawrence was going to be an MVP candidate this season. He took a big leap last season and looked primed to be a top quarterback in the league with the Jaguars adding Calvin Ridley to their offense. Lawrence finished as the QB7 last season with 295 points, but this season he sits at the QB17 slot with 121 points and is on pace for 242 points. He only has nine touchdowns on the season which is less than some quarterbacks such as Mac Jones, Fields (has missed the last four games), and Jordan Love. One reason for his lack of production is the play of running back Travis Etienne who has shined this season. Lawrence has also had a few touchdown passes called back or dropped from his receivers. 

• Season Stats: 1,935 yards, 9 touchdowns, 68.3% completion, and 4 interceptions

Bijan Robinson

I get he is a rookie so there shouldn’t be high expectations, but when you are the 8th overall pick in the draft and a first-rounder in fantasy football, you gotta be producing. Robinson started out good with 20.3, 21.2, 10, and 18.7 points through his first four weeks, but his production has gone way down since. The thing is, it isn’t even Robinson’s fault, it is the coaching staff. Tyler Allgeier steals a lot of touches and Robinson also does not get played enough. Week in and week out you never know if he will get 20 touches or nine. 

• Season Stats: 131 touches, 714 total yards, 5.0 Y/A, and  3 touchdowns 

Davante Adams

In his last six seasons, Adams has been a top-five receiver in fantasy five times. He earned the top spot in 2020 with 243 points and was second last season with 235 points with Derek Carr throwing to him instead of Aaron Rodgers. This season he now has Jimmy G and Aidan O’Connell throwing the ball to him and his production has gone way down. Adams has only had three games over 15 points, he peaked in Week 3 against Pittsburgh with 42 points, but since that game, he has produced 15.5, 8.5, 4.9, 12.7, 2.1, and 7.4 points. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a reliable target for this team and is only five points behind Adams in fantasy points with one less game played. The big reason is Adams simply does not get the ball enough and when he gets the ball thrown to him it is off target. We saw against Detroit how many times Adams was wide open for a 40+ yard gain and potential touchdown and Jimmy G completely missed him. He should be getting at least 12 targets per game, a few of them being screens just to get the ball in your best player’s hand. He has a tough matchup against the Jets this week, but the good news is that his schedule gets more favorable down the stretch as the Raiders play Miami, Kansas City twice, Minnesota, and the Chargers which may all be high-scoring games. 

• Season Stats: 51 receptions, 573 yards, and 3 touchdowns 

Surprises 

C.J. Stroud 

The future is bright for Stroud as the second overall pick in the NFL draft is shining in his rookie year with the Texans. Going undrafted in the majority of leagues, Stroud was definitely picked up by all leagues by Week 5. Stroud is seventh in the league in passing yards with 2,270 yards and is seventh in touchdowns with 14. He is coming off his best game against the Buccaneers putting up 470 yards throwing on 71% throwing with five touchdowns. The most impressive thing to me is how well he has protected the ball, with only one interception, and two lost fumbles. For any quarterback that is impressive through eight games, but it is even more impressive as a rookie.  Not only is he one of the biggest surprises, but he is also a sleeper for MVP as he has the Texans in playoff contention at 4-4. 

• Season Stats: 2,270 yards, 14 touchdowns, 62% completion, 1 interception

Zack Moss

If you drafted Jonathon Taylor hopefully you drafted Moss as well to hold down the fort while Taylor was out for the first four weeks. Moss is currently the RB6, 55 spots above his last year spot at RB61 where he scored 53 points. He almost surpassed those points just three weeks into this season. Moss started out hot with back-to-back 20+ point weeks and saw 33.5 points and 17.9 points when Taylor returned. The most impressive thing is his workload, he had 30 rushing attempts in Week 2 and saw 23 attempts in Week 5. Taylor is starting to settle into the offense, but Moss is still not a bad RB2 or flex option if you need someone. We have seen him continue to get goal-line work so one touchdown can make his week.

• 148 touches, 738 total yards, and 6 touchdowns 

Adam Thielen

We have seen Bryce Young struggle, but that has not affected the veteran. Thielen used to be a machine in 2018 when he finished as WR7 with 194 points and then finished again as the WR7 in 2020 with 180 points. Now 33 years old I think many people expected he was far past his prime, but he has developed as Young’s go-to target. Thielen is currently WR5 and has seven games with 10+ points on the season, he has seen 8+ targets in all of these games. Like Stroud, Thielen was probably undrafted in most leagues, unless you are in a 14+ team league. He was definitely one of the top targets on the waiver wire after his Week 2 20.4 point performance and his Week 3 31.5 point performance. If you had trouble at your receiver position and picked him up, good for you. 

• Season Stats: 68 receptions, 652 yards, and 4 touchdowns 

Let me know in the comments who you think are some of the biggest busts and surprises this season.