NFL MVP

With just three weeks left in the season, the MVP race continues to heat up. The current favorites look drastically different from the beginning of the season. 

Odds to start the season: 

Player	Pre-Season Odds	Week 16 Odds
Patrick Mahomes	+700	+2000
Josh Allen	+700	+1000
Joe Burrow	+700	U/A
Justin Herbert	+900	U/A
Tua Tagovailoa	+1200	+2500
Jalen Hurts	+1200	+1800
Trevor Lawrence	+1600	+1500
Dak Prescott	+1600	+750
Lamar Jackson	+1600	+450
Aaron Rodgers	+2500	U/A

I mean talk about a QB award. This is just the top 10, the next nine players on this list to start the season were also quarterbacks. The first non-quarterback was Justin Jefferson at the 20 slot. 

Current odds 

Player	Current Odds	Pre-Season Odds
Brock Purdy	-200	+2500
Lamar Jackson	+450	+1600
Dak Prescott	+750	+1600
Christian McCaffrey	+1000	+20000
Josh Allen	+1000	+700
Jalen Hurts	+1800	+1200
Tyreek Hill	+2000	+10000
Patrick Mahomes	+2000	+700
Tua Tagovailoa	+2500	+1200
Trevor Lawrence	+15000	+1600

A lot of value on the table for Purdy, CMC, and Hill. 

*Stats highlighted green indicate the players was in the top-3 of his position for that specific stat*

MVP in San Fran?

Brock Purdy is the clear favorite right now, but should he be? There has been so much criticism of his play this season and whether or not he is the real deal or just a system quarterback. You got people saying quarterbacks like Mac Jones would do well in this Kyle Shanahan offense and then you got one of the G.O.A.T’s like Jerry Rice on the other side of the line saying Purdy reminds him of Joe “Cool” Montana. 

I see both sides of the argument. Purdy has one of if not the best offensive-minded coaches in the league and has a STACKED offense. Best RB and FB in the league, has a great receiving core, and a solid o-line. On the other hand, Purdy is leading in some of the major quarterback stats, and is outperforming his draft spot, and at the end of the day even if you have an “All-Pro” offense with great play calling, you still need to make the right reads, make the right decisions, and execute. 

I get why he is one of the favorites, but being -200 is a little crazy. I don’t think he is the most valuable player on his team. CMC has looked like his 2019 self and is a big reason why this team is at the top of the NFC. Having a dominant run game opens up so much for Purdy and this offense. Defenses cannot stack the box because that leaves mismatches with either Kittle, Deebo, or Aiyuk so the run game is always open which then sets up the play-action.

Brock Purdy

14 Games Played

69.8% Completion

3,795 Passing Yards

29 Touchdowns

76.0 QBR

7 Interceptions

Christian McCaffrey

244 Rushing Attempts

1,292 Rushing Yards

8 20+ Yard Runs

57 Receptions

509 Receiving Yards

20 Total Touchdowns

Tyreek Hill 

Looking at another non-quarterback, Tyreek Hill has been the best receiver in football this season and is 423 yards away from breaking the all-time receiving yards record that is held by Calvin Johnson. There are guys who we say are “unguardable” but then there is Tyreek. Man or zone it doesn’t matter there is no stopping him. The fact that some teams still go at him one-on-one with no safety help (cough cough Commanders) is insane to me. 

Tyreek Hill

97 Receptions

132 Targets

1,542 Yards

15.9 Yards Per Catch

26 20+ Yard Catches*

12 Touchdowns

Lamar Jackson 

The former MVP has his team in first place in the entire league with an 11-3 record. Much of the Ravens success has come from their rushing game which Lamar is very much a part of. The team ranks first in the league in rushing yards per game with 163.8, almost 23 more yards than the next team (Detroit Lions). Despite J.K. Dobbins going down with a season-ending injury guys like Keaton Mitchell, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill have all stepped up. When it comes to the passing game, Lamar is more middle of the pack. He is 18th in passing touchdowns, 16th in passing yards, and T-12 in completion percentage. Although his passing stats may not seem worthy of an MVP season, his rushing ability makes up for it tremendously. Having a duel-threat quarterback like Lamar has given defenses trouble and makes it hard to gameplan against them. Lamar does need to protect the ball more. He has 7 interceptions and 11 fumbles on the season. 

Lamar Jackson

14 Gamess Played

66.3% Completion

3,105 Passing Yards

17 Passing Touchdowns

60.9 QBR

7 Interceptions

135 Rushing Attempts

741 Rushing Yards

5 Rushing Touchdowns

Dak Prescott 

One of the players in the league who faces the most criticism every time his team loses is right at the top of the MVP race. Since Week 8 Prescott has been on an absolute tear averaging 288 yards per game with a 23:3 touchdown: interception ratio. Ceedee Lamb and Jake Ferguson have been huge for him this season, especially in the redzone. Dak has struggled on the road though. 

Home Stats: 7 games played, 74% completion, 303 yards per game. 20 touchdowns, 2 interceptions 

Away Stats: 7 games played, 63% completion, 216 yards per game, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions  

Dak Prescott

14 Games Played

68.8% Completion

3,639 Passing Yards

28 Touchdowns

72.7 QBR

7 Interceptions

My Opinion 

If there was ever a season for the league to show the world that this award is not only for quarterbacks now is the time. The last non-quarterback to win the award was back in 2012 with Adrian Peterson who had 2,314 all-purpose yards (144.6 per game) and 13 touchdowns. CMC is on pace for around 2100 yards and 24 touchdowns and Hill is on pace for around 118 catches, 1,900 yards, and 15 touchdowns. Both of these seasons would be better than AP’s. This NFL season has dropped quarterbacks’ value and shown that other positions are just as valuable. There are four teams in the playoffs (Browns, Bengals, Colts, Vikings) whose starting quarterbacks had season-ending injuries and their backups have held down the fort. Did anyone think the Bengals would be in a playoff spot without Joe Burrow? Or what about the Vikings when Kirk Cousins got hurt and the team was 4-4? Then you have teams like the Giants who are 5-9 but have 3 wins from their third-string quarterback, one win from their backup, and one win from their starter who they paid 40+ million dollars a year for. 

If the vote was up to me my pick is CMC. The dude has been a beast the entire year and is the most consistent player in the league. Take McCaffrey off the team and let Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason go running back by committee and let me know if this offense is still this dominant. 

My Rankings 

McCaffrey +1000

Hill +2000

Purdy -200

Prescott +750

Tua +2500

Lamar +450